The Madness of King George

Thursday, March 24, 2005

The Trappings of Spring Training Stats

Spring Training stats are great. After four months of baseball trades, signings, and rumors, the stats that come out of Spring Training are tangible evidence that baseball is happening again. Plus, when else would Gabe Gross lead the Majors in home runs and Tony Womack be hitting .488? Spring Training stats allow imaginations to run wild with scenarios of "what if."

What if Jose Reyes keeps stealing all these bases? What if Carl Everett or Troy Glaus lead their respective leagues in RBIs? What if Carlos Zambrano really does pitch to an ERA of 0.00 all year long? These things don't happen, but it's fun to imagine.

There is also a downside to Spring Training stats. For many pitchers, Spring Training is a time to tune up. While batters are working on their timing, pitchers are fiddling with their mechanics or picking up new pitches. Sometimes, they'll throw just off-speed pitchers for five innings. Or maybe they'll just go with straight fastballs for 30 pitches. In the end, stats suffer.

That's just what happened to Tom Gordon in the Yankees' 9-4 loss to the Reds this evening. Gordon threw one inning and surrendered six hits and five runs. He also recorded two strike outs. Gordon's spring stats before tonight were good. He had nine strike outs in seven innings and had given up just five hits and two earned runs. His earned run average will now bloat to something just under 8.00.

But for Tom Gordon, it doesn't matter. Tonight was a night of fiddling and adjusting. He's still struck out 11 in eight innings this spring. While his ERA ain't pretty, he's only walked two batters in those eight innings. He missed tonight inside the zone.

So don't worry about those spring stats. Don't worry when Randy Johnson gives up five runs because he threw only breaking balls for four innings. Don't worry about Tom Gordon's high ERA. If you want to worry about Spring Training stats, look behind those numbers. Look at Mike Mussina and his four strike outs in 13 innings. That's much more of a concern than Tom Gordon's outing.

With those Spring Training stats, which are so fun to fantasize over, it's all about knowing which ones matter and which ones do not.

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